August 9th:

Unified and clear price increase! After nearly two weeks of continuously releasing price increase signals, major manufacturers gathered in Yunnan yesterday. At the current low inventory level and the theme of "golden September and silver October", it is an important opportunity for individual factories to steadily increase prices. It is reported that several individual factories completely closed down and did not report yesterday, showing a joint attitude of raising prices. As for how much it can increase, it depends on the downstream stocking pace.

In terms of cost, the spot market remains stable, with a quoted price of 12300~12800 yuan/ton for 421 # metal silicon. Due to the current market transaction price being lower than the production cost line of many manufacturers, some metal silicon enterprises have reduced production. The price of non expired goods continues to decline. Yesterday, the contract price of Si2409 was quoted at 9885 yuan/ton, a decrease of 365 and falling below the 10000 mark! Market sentiment has been dampened. The futures market price has fallen far below the cost price, and it is expected to force the suspension of some industrial silicon production capacity.

Overall, due to frequent price fluctuations on the cost side and the continuous release of new production capacity from individual factories, it has added unfavorable factors to the market. However, the real constraint on the bullish sentiment in the midstream and downstream markets is still the problem of insufficient orders. In the past two weeks, with the increasing demand for inventory replenishment, if we want to continue adding and replenishing inventory, we will inevitably need the support of orders. Therefore, although the market is expected to steadily rise in the future, stocking up or not will once again become a tug of war between upstream and downstream!

The market for precipitated white carbon black:

On the raw material side, the price of sulfuric acid varies due to different demand situations, and the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, while the overall market remains stable; In terms of soda ash, the market maintains a surplus of supply and demand, and prices are running weakly under the game of supply and demand. This week, the domestic light alkali quotation is 1600-2050 yuan/ton, and the heavy alkali quotation is 1650-2250 yuan/ton. The cost remains stable, and the price of precipitated white carbon black is unlikely to fluctuate. This week, the price of precipitated white carbon black for silicone rubber remained stable at 6300-7000 yuan/ton. In terms of orders, the procurement focus of downstream rubber mixing enterprises is still on raw rubber, coupled with limited orders, there is not much stock of white carbon black, and the transaction situation is sluggish.

Overall, it is difficult for the upstream price increase to quickly land, and it needs to be driven by favorable demand in the long term. It is difficult to carry out the stocking wave of mixed rubber, so the price of white carbon black is constrained by supply and demand, and it is difficult to have significant changes. In the short term, although it is difficult to implement a price increase for precipitated white carbon black, there may be some improvement in shipments, and prices have been running steadily in the near future.
Gas phase white carbon black market:

On the raw material side, due to insufficient orders, the price of Class A continues to decline. This week, the Northwest monomer factory reported a price of 1300 yuan/ton, a further decrease of 200 yuan, and the Shandong monomer factory reported a price of 900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan. The continued decline in costs is somewhat favorable for the profit of silicon gas, but it may also promote a competitive atmosphere in the market. In terms of demand, this year's high-temperature adhesive companies have increased their layout in liquid and gas phase adhesives, and liquid silicone and high-quality gas phase adhesives have certain technical requirements for gas silicone. Therefore, medium and high-quality gas silicone companies can smoothly accept orders with a lead time of 20-30 days; However, ordinary gas-phase white carbon black is supported by the prices of major manufacturers, and the profit margin is also relatively small.

From this week's perspective, the high-end price of 200 meter gas-phase white carbon black continues to be 24000-27000 yuan/ton, while the low-end price ranges from 18000-22000 yuan/ton. Specific transactions are still mainly based on negotiation, and it is expected to operate sideways in the short term.

Overall, everything is ready except for the momentum of orders! The atmosphere of rising prices has been brewing for two weeks, but the market sentiment is showing a clear trend. After receiving a wave of orders last week, individual factories have only gradually replenished their inventory this week. After actively stocking up in the middle and lower reaches, they also hope that the rise will drive their own order volume. However, the terminal performance is not as expected, and the unanimous rise is still somewhat passive. It has to be said that this kind of upward trend and downstream wait-and-see vividly demonstrates the survival of the current industry! Everyone has their own reasons and can empathize with each other, but they are all helpless, just to 'survive'.

It is expected that in mid August, the focus of DMC transactions will slightly shift upwards. Although manufacturers have expressed unanimous support for prices, there will still be some differentiation in order transactions. However, the middle and lower reaches both want to increase prices and are afraid that the rise will be short-lived. Therefore, after just stocking up, continuing to stock up depends on the individual factory's determination to increase prices. Can the simultaneous reduction of load offset the release of new production capacity? In order to smoothly continue the counterattack of the previous round of "Golden September" until September, we need to see more operational support in the market!